OP0145 VALIDATION OF 3 PREDICTION MODELS FOR THROMBOSIS IN ANTIPHOSPHOLIPID SYNDROME PATIENTS BASED ON A PROSPECTIVE COHORT

Background Antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is a rare and complicated acquired autoimmune thrombophilia characterized by arterial/venous thrombosis and/or recurrent pregnancy loss. Thrombosis the first cause of death APS patients. However, there has been no generally acknowledged model to predict thrombosis. Only adjusted global score (aGAPSS) was developed for prediction but based on cross-sectional study 1 . Additionally, predictive ability Padua Caprini not validated in Objectives Aim validate aGAPSS, patients basing prospective cohort. Methods Consecutive who fulfilled 2006 Sydney Revised Classification Criteria APS, referred Peking Union Medical College Hospital were included. Clinical data, score, at time diagnosis collected. Patients with less than 1-year follow-up excluded. Harrell c-index calibration curve used models. Results A total 302 enrolled this study. The mean age 32±12 years old, 202 (66.9%) female (Table 1). followed up median 36 months. During period, 62 thrombotic events, 40 (13.25%) venous 22 (7.28%) arterial 1-, 3-, 5-year risks 8.9%, 16.9%, 21.3% respectively (Figure 1A). c-indexes predicting 0.56 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.52-0.60), 0.58 CI, 0.54-0.62), 0.61 (95%CI, 0.57-0.65) respectively. best discrimination whose 0.64 0.60-0.68), 0.62 0.56-0.68). curves illustrated that within 3 after all models poor 1B-D). Table 1. Demographic characteristics clinical manifestations baseline N=302 Age, mean±SD Female, n (%) (66.9) Venous thrombosis, 156 (51.7) Disease duration (months), (Q1, Q3) 11.50 (3.00, 44.00) Deep 112 (37.1) Secondary SLE, 73 (24.2) Pulmonary embolism, 70 (23.2) Smoking history, 63 (20.9) Visceral 12 (4.0) Hypertension, 59 (19.5) Cranial sinus 13 (4.3) Hyperlipidemia, 151 (50.0) Arterial 113 (37.4) BMI, 23.96±3.89 Stroke/TIA, (20.5) LA positive, 241 (79.8) Myocardial infarction, 14 (4.6) aCL 208 (68.9) lower extremities, (7.3) aβ2GPI 242 (80.1) 18 (6.0) Triple aPL 165 (54.6) Thrombocytopenia, 118 (39.1) Obstetric manifestations, (% ) N=202 Valvular lesions, 24 (7.9) Pregnancy morbidity 103 (51.0) Early miscarriages (<10 weeks) (6.4) Fetal (>= 10 68 (33.7) Preeclampsia, eclampsia placental dysfunction (17.8) Figure Kaplan-Meier diagnosis. A: venous, both B: C: D: Conclusion relatively poor. Construction new specifically required help early prevention treatment. References [1]Sciascia, S., et al., GAPSS: Global Anti-Phospholipid Syndrome Score. Rheumatology (Oxford), 2013. 52(8): p. 1397-403. Disclosure Interests None declared